And The Oscar Goes To…

A meek monarch, a lesbian couple at odds, Beantown boxers and Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg are among the diverse subjects from 2010 that captured the attention of the 5,755 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences who determined nominees for the 83rd annual Academy Awards. “The King’s Speech” leads the pack with 12 nods, but don’t expect a sweep. Tight races lurk in multiple categories so anything is possible when winners are revealed Sunday, February 27 at the Kodak Theatre in Los Angeles. Here are my predictions in the top six categories.

BEST PICTURE

“127 Hours”; “Black Swan,” “The Fighter,” “Inception,” “The Kids Are All Right,” “The King’s Speech,” “The Social Network,” “Toy Story 3,” “True Grit,” “Winter’s Bone”

Will/Should Win: “The King’s Speech”

Overlooked: “Animal Kingdom”; “Blue Valentine”; “Fair Game”; “Get Low”; “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”; “Mother and Child”; “Nowhere Boy”; “Please Give”; “Rabbit Hole”; “The Town”

It’s not an American story, but the crowd-pleasing “King’s Speech” is a triumphant, universal, superbly acted tale appealing to the Academy’s longstanding admiration for wonderfully executed period pieces. The over-praised “Social Network” is the most topical choice and could certainly win, but it lacks warmth and probably failed to connect with older voters. My heart remains with the terrifically contemporary “Kids Are All Right,” one of the finest depictions of marriage and family ever filmed that could have had a fighting chance if the number of nominees returned to the traditional five. Barring a last-minute surge for “Social Network” or an upset from “The Fighter,” “Inception,” “Toy Story 3” or “True Grit,” the “King” will prevail.

BEST DIRECTOR

Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”;  Joel and Ethan Coen, “True Grit”; David Fincher, “The Social Network”; Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”; David O. Russell, “The Fighter”

Will Win: Fincher

Should Win: Aronofsky

Overlooked: Ben Affleck, “The Town”; Danny Boyle, “127 Hours”; Derek Cianfrance, “Blue Valentine”; Lisa Cholodenko, “The Kids Are All Right”; Rodrigo Garcia, “Mother and Child”; Debra Granik, “Winter’s Bone”; Luca Guadagnino, “I Am Love”; Mike Leigh, “Another Year”; David Michod, “Animal Kingdom”; John Cameron Mitchell, “Rabbit Hole”; Christopher Nolan, “Inception”; Niels Arden Oplev, “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”; Roman Polanski, “The Ghost Writer”; Sam Taylor-Wood, “Nowhere Boy”; Peter Weir, “The Way Back”

The Emmy winning Hooper (“Elizabeth I,” “John Adams”) brought grace, intimacy and sophistication to “King’s Speech,” but he’s a relative newcomer in the film world. As so, the Academy’s Directors Branch would seem to favor the more established Fincher who worked wonders with Aaron Sorkin’s fast and furious screenplay. Still, it would be great to see Aronofsky win for masterfully weaving his gripping ballet mind-bender.

BEST ACTOR

Javier Bardem, “Biutiful”; Jeff Bridges, “True Grit”; Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”; Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”; James Franco, “127 Hours”

Will/Should Win: Firth

Overlooked: Ben Affleck, “The Company Men”; Jim Carrey, “I Love You Philip Morris”; George Clooney, “The American”; Leonardo DiCaprio, “Shutter Island”; Michael Douglas, “Solitary Man”; Robert Duvall, “Get Low”; Aaron Eckhart, “Rabbit Hole”; Paul Giamatti, “Barney’s Version”; Ryan Gosling, “Blue Valentine”; Aaron Johnson, “Nowhere Boy”; Ewan McGregor, “The Ghost Writer”; Michael Nyqvist, “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”; John C. Reilly, “Cyrus”; Ryan Reynolds, “Buried”; Kevin Spacey, “Casino Jack”; Ben Stiller, “Greenberg”; Mark Wahlberg, “The Fighter”; Denzel Washington, “The Book of Eli”

The surest bet of the night. Having unfortunately lost to Bridges last year for his phenomenally subtle work in “A Single Man,” Firth will reign for being equally sublime as the stuttering King George VI.

BEST ACTRESS

Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”; Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”; Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”; Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”; Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”

Will Win: Portman

Should Win: Bening

Overlooked: Anne Hathaway, “Love & Other Drugs”; Sally Hawkins, “Made in Dagenham”; Catherine Keener, “Please Give”; Diane Lane, “Secretariat”; Lesley Manville, “Another Year”; Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are All Right”; Noomi Rapace, “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”; Julia Roberts, “Eat Pray Love”; Tilda Swinton, “I Am Love”; Hilary Swank, “Conviction”; Naomi Watts, “Fair Game”

The breadth of Portman’s fearless turn as perfection-obsessed ballerina Nina Sayers makes her the favorite, but she’ll have many more opportunities at Oscar glory. At 52, Bening, previously nominated three times and losing twice to Hilary Swank, gave the performance of her career as Nic, a beautifully complex woman coping with her partner’s infidelity and the unexpected presence of their sperm donor. It would be a thrill to see Bening’s marvelously compelling, less is more achievement duly rewarded.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christian Bale, “The Fighter”;  John Hawkes, “Winter’s Bone”; Jeremy Renner, “The Town”; Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right”; Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”

Will Win: Bale

Should Win: Rush

Overlooked: David Andrews, “Fair Game”; Lucas Black, “Get Low”; Vincent Cassel, “Black Swan”; Bill Cobbs, “Get Low”; Chris Cooper, “The Company Men”; Matt Damon, “True Grit”; Michael Douglas, “Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps”; Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network”; Armie Hammer, “The Social Network”;  Josh Hutcherson, “The Kids Are All Right”; Richard Jenkins, “Eat Pray Love”; Tommy Lee Jones, “The Company Men”; Ben Kingsley, “Shutter Island”; Ewan McGregor, “I Love You Philip Morris”; Ben Mendelsohn, “Animal Kingdom”; Bill Murray, “Get Low”; John Ortiz, “Jack Goes Boating”; Sean Penn, “Fair Game”; Pete Postlethwaite, “The Town”; Sam Rockwell, “Conviction”; Michael Shannon, “The Runaways”; Miles Teller, “Rabbit Hole”

In a less competitive year, Rush, who was so formidable and magnetic as speech therapist Lionel Logue, would be a shoo-in, but he already has an Oscar thanks to “Shine.” In an attempt to spread the wealth, the Academy will finally embrace the dynamic Bale, who should have won an Oscar for “American Psycho” and absolutely delivered one of the best performances by a child actor in “Empire of the Sun.” The cinematic chameleon left nothing undone as the larger-than-life Dicky Eklund.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, “The Fighter”;  Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”;  Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”;  Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit;  Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom”

Will Win: Steinfeld

Should Win: Weaver

Overlooked: Annette Bening, “Mother and Child”; Marion Cotillard, “Inception”; Rosemarie DeWitt, “The Company Men”; Dale Dickey, “Winter’s Bone”; Kimberly Elise, “For Colored Girls”; Shareeka Epps, “Mother and Child”; Ann Guilbert, “Please Give”; Rebecca Hall, “Please Give”; Sally Hawkins, “Never Let Me Go”; Barbara Hershey, “Black Swan”; Cherry Jones, “Mother and Child”; Mila Kunis, “Black Swan”; Rooney Mara, “The Social Network”; Miranda Richardson, “Made in Dagenham”; Daphne Rubin-Vega, “Jack Goes Boating”; Sissy Spacek, “Get Low”; Kristin Scott Thomas, “Nowhere Boy”; Marisa Tomei, “Cyrus”; Mia Wasikowska, “The Kids Are All Right”; Kerry Washington, “Mother and Child”; Naomi Watts, “Mother and Child”; Dianne Weist, “Rabbit Hole”; Olivia Williams, “The Ghost Writer”

Extremely close to call. Weaver deserves to win as the cunningly affectionate yet chillingly malevolent matriarch in the little-seen “Animal Kingdom,” but this race is a newcomer/veteran showdown between 14-year-old Steinfeld and 50-year-old Leo. Steinfeld, a firecracker plucked from obscurity out of nearly 15,000 girls who auditioned for the role of Mattie Ross, should have been placed in the Best Actress category, but her sharp, impressively language-driven, wiser-than-her-years portrayal ignited the screen nonetheless. If she takes the prize, she’ll continue the recent trend of actresses winning here on their first nomination (such as Jennifer Hudson, Mo’Nique, Tilda Swinton and Rachel Weisz) and also become the youngest Supporting Actress champ since Anna Paquin (“The Piano”). Leo, a consummate character actress well-suited to play the fiery Alice Ward, might fall victim to her questionably smug Oscar campaign, vote-splitting with Adams and the magnitude of Steinfeld’s distinct work, particularly her screen time.

The 83rd annual Academy Awards, co-hosted by James Franco and Anne Hathaway, will be telecast live on ABC Sunday, February 27 at 8 p.m. For a complete list of nominees, visit www.oscar.com. In related news, The Neon Movies, 130 E. Fifth St. in downtown Dayton, and The Little Art Theatre, 247 Xenia Ave. in Yellow Springs, will host Oscar parties Sunday evening. For information about The Neon’s festivities, call (937) 222-7469 or visit www.neonmovies.com. For more information about The Little Art’s festivities, call (937) 767-7671 or visit www.littleart.com