During 2012, the 5,856 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences were captivated by such subjects as Abraham Lincoln, a teenager battling a tiger, the Iran hostage crisis, and the postapocalyptic universe of a young girl named Hushpuppy. As the 85th annual Academy Awards beckon, period drama “Lincoln” leads with 12 nominations, but the technically striking “Life of Pi” and popular frontrunner “Argo” are major contenders. As always, anything is possible when winners will be revealed Sunday, February 24 at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. Here are my predictions in the top six categories.
BEST PICTURE
“Amour”; “Argo”; “Beasts of the Southern Wild”; “Django Unchained”; “Les Miserables”; “Life of Pi”; “Lincoln”; “Silver Linings Playbook”; “Zero Dark Thirty”
Overlooked: “Anna Karenina”; “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”; “The Dark Knight Rises”; “End of Watch”; “Flight”; “The Hunger Games”; “The Impossible”; “Looper”; “The Master”; “Moonrise Kingdom”; “The Perks of Being a Wallflower”; “Promised Land”; “The Sessions”
Will Win: “Argo”
Should Win: “Lincoln”
Spoiler: “Amour”
I really wish the Academy would return to five nominees here. Still, this slate, deemed the nine best out of 282 eligible films, is uniformly strong nonetheless. “Lincoln” has it all from thought-provoking historical context to cinematic expertise, but Ben Affleck being snubbed for Best Director has shockingly propelled the underdog narrative of “Argo” throughout the award season. However, the intimately sublime “Amour,” a poignant foreign film about an elderly couple shaken by sickness, could garner enough votes from older members of the Academy to surprise everyone when the final envelope of the evening is opened.
BEST DIRECTOR
Michael Haneke, “Amour”
Ang Lee, “Life of Pi”
David O. Russell, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”
Benh Zeitlin, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Overlooked: Ben Affleck, “Argo”; Paul Thomas Anderson, “The Master”; Wes Anderson, “Moonrise Kingdom”; Kathryn Bigelow, “Zero Dark Thirty”; Stephen Chbosky, “The Perks of Being a Wallflower”; Tom Hooper, “Les Miserables”; Rian Johnson, “Looper”; Ben Lewin, “The Sessions”; Christopher Nolan, “The Dark Knight Rises”; Gary Ross, “The Hunger Games”; Ira Sachs, “Keep The Lights On”; Quentin Tarantino, “Django Unchained”; Joe Wright, “Anna Karenina”; Robert Zemeckis, “Flight”
Will Win: Spielberg
Should Win: Lee
Spoiler: Zeitlin
Lee defied the odds by adapting Yann Martel’s challenging novel into a visceral, visual stunner, but Spielberg’s splendidly understated work, which extends to the brilliance of his cast and creative team, will not be ignored. Still, it would be cool to see Zeitlin win for his bold and imaginative indie bayou concoction.
BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”
Hugh Jackman, “Les Miserables”
Joaquin Phoenix, “The Master”
Denzel Washington, “Flight”
Overlooked: Jack Black, “Bernie”; Matt Damon, “Promised Land”; Richard Gere, “Arbitrage”; Jake Gyllenhaal, “End of Watch”; John Hawkes, “The Sessions”; Tom Holland, “The Impossible”; Logan Lerman, “The Perks of Being a Wallflower”; Matthew McConaughey, “Killer Joe”; Brad Pitt, “Killing Them Softly”; Jean-Louis Trintignant, “Amour”
Will/Should Win: Day-Lewis
Spoiler: Washington
It’s a shame that one of Washington’s most compelling portrayals occurred the same year Day-Lewis inhabited the presidency to astonishing degrees. Day-Lewis will be the first man to win three lead acting Oscars, but I’m glad the powerfully full-throttle Phoenix was remembered for demolishing a toilet with his foot.
BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour”
Quvenzhané Wallis, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Naomi Watts, “The Impossible”
Overlooked: Marion Cotillard, “Rust and Bone”; Viola Davis, “Won’t Back Down”; Judi Dench, “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”; Maggie Gylennhaal, “Won’t Back Down”; Keira Knightley, “Anna Karenina”; Helen Mirren, “Hitchcock”
Will Win: Lawrence
Should Win: Chastain or Riva
Spoiler: Wallis
I’m a huge admirer of Chastain’s superbly nuanced performance but must admit I was blown away by Lawrence, whose magnetic, jaw-dropping range of emotions and innate sex appeal signified her dynamic growth as a formidable leading lady. Even so, Riva’s devastating decline as a former music teacher immobilized by a stroke was an utterly heartbreaking, meticulously skillful feat. And at 86, Riva would become the oldest Oscar winner, which adds to her recent momentum as a sentimental favorite. But foreign language winners are rare. Marion Cotillard was the last to prevail for “La Vie en Rose” in 2008. As so, I’m going with Lawrence but would love to see the adorable, mesmerizing 9-year-old Wallis, the youngest-ever Best Actress nominee, take her rightful place in Oscar history alongside former child winners Tatum O’Neal and Anna Paquin.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin, “Argo,”
Robert De Niro, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”
Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln”
Christoph Walz, “Django Unchained”
Overlooked: Javier Bardem, “Skyfall”; Kyle Chandler, “Zero Dark Thirty”; Jason Clarke, “Zero Dark Thirty”; Don Cheadle, “Flight”; Bryan Cranston, “Argo”; Benicio Del Toro, “Savages”; Leonardo DiCaprio, “Django Unchained”; John Goodman, “Argo” and “Flight”; Dwight Henry, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”; Samuel L. Jackson, “Django Unchained”; Jude Law, “Anna Karenina”; Matthew McConaughey, “Magic Mike”; Ewan McGregor, “The Impossible”; Ezra Miller, “The Perks of Being a Wallflower”; Bill Nighy, “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”; Michael Pena, “End of Watch”; Eddie Redmayne, “Les Miserables”; Stanley Tucci, “The Hunger Games”; Tom Wilkinson, “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
Will Win: Jones
Should Win: De Niro or Hoffman
Spoiler: Arkin
The great thing about this highly competitive category is that the losers can return home to the Oscar (or Oscars in De Niro’s case) they already own. Jones’ gravitas and impressive grasp of screenwriter Tony Kushner’s grandiose language gives him the edge over Hoffman’s commanding mastermind and De Niro’s surprisingly tender patriarch. However, watch out for the scene-stealing Arkin benefitting from the “Argo” groundswell even though he basically played a variation of himself again.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, “The Master”
Sally Field, “Lincoln”
Anne Hathaway, “Les Miserables”
Helen Hunt, “The Sessions”
Jacki Weaver, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Overlooked: Samantha Barks, “Les Miserables”; Anne Dowd, “Compliance”; Jennifer Ehle, “Zero Dark Thirty”; Carmen Ejogo, “Sparkle”; Maggie Gyllenhaal, “Hysteria”; Salma Hayek, “Savages”; Isabelle Huppert, “Amour”; Kelly MacDonald, “Anna Karenina”; Brit Marling, “Sound of My Voice”; Frances McDormand, “Promised Land”; Susan Sarandon, “Arbitrage” and“Jeff, Who Lives At Home”; Maggie Smith, “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
Will Win: Hathaway
Should Win: Field
Spoiler: Hunt
If Day-Lewis deserves three Oscars so does Field, who absolutely gave one of the finest performances of her career as the feisty, grieving first lady. I also found Hunt at the top of her game after a long absence portraying a kindly sex therapist. Even so, Oscar loves musical theater so look for Hathaway to reign for rediscovering the melancholy beauty within “I Dreamed a Dream.”
The 85th annual Academy Awards, hosted by Seth McFarlane, will be telecast live on ABC Sunday, February 24 at 7 p.m. In related news, The Neon Movies, 130 E. Fifth St. in downtown Dayton, The Little Art Theatre, 247 Xenia Ave. in Yellow Springs, and FilmDayton will host Oscar parties Sunday evening. For information about the Neon’s festivities, call (937) 222-7469 or visit www.neonmovies.com. For Little Art inquiries, call (937) 767-7671 or visit www.littleart.com. For FilmDayton’s festivities, which will be held at The Venue on Third, visit www.filmdayton.com
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